Use the raw data in this tab to calculate the probability that water from Alluria contains more than 10 µg of carcinogen per liter (>10 µg/L).

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Use the raw data in this tab to calculate the probability that water from Alluria contains more than 10 µg of carcinogen per liter (>10 µg/L).

 

These are for questions 5-6.

 

For question 5, assume the data are reasonably modeled by a normal probability distribution. For question 6, assume the data are NOT reasonably modeled by a normal probability distribution.

 

Use this Excel sheet for calculations. Round all calculated values to the nearest tenth of a decimal place. For example, if you calculate the value as 3.8218%, round to 3.8%.

 

Directions: For question 6, use the Act I: A Mysterious Disease Workbook and refer to the sheet titled “Q5-6 Water Concentration Prob,” containing the concentrations of carcinogen in water samples from the Allurian Forest (sample size = 20 water samples). Use Excel for calculations, modeling, and graphing.

ID Carcinogen concentration (µg/L)
1 1.91
2 2.82
3 5.29
4 0.08
5 0.96
6 0.87
7 5.10
8 4.59
9 4.72
10 1.89
11 2.28
12 0.13
13 2.80
14 1.95
15 3.91
16 1.50
17 3.04
18 0.32
19 0.08
20 3.62

 

  1. Assuming a normal probability distribution does not reasonably model the data, calculate the probability that water from Alluria contains more than 10 ug of carcinogen per liter (> 10 µg/L).

The probability that the concentration of carcinogen in water exceeds the recommended limit of 10 µg/L =

 

 

Step 3: Weigh the evidence and conclude if an elevated concentration of carcinogens in the water could explain the widespread cancer cases in spotted gliders.

Because of your careful planning in Step 1 and your quantitative analyses in Step 2, you can now conclude if an elevated level of carcinogens in the water could explain the widespread cases of cancer in spotted gliders. Be sure to provide your reasoning, highlighting the relevant evidence supporting your claim.

Note: Use the following criteria to determine whether the carcinogen concentration exceeds the recommended limit: the probability of observing a concentration of carcinogen in water that exceeds 10 µg/L must be greater than 5%.

 

  1. Select the claim that is better supported by the evidence.
  2. Yes, the widespread cancer cases in spotted gliders could be explained by elevated levels of carcinogens in the water.
  3. No, the widespread cancer cases in spotted gliders could not be explained by elevated levels of carcinogens in the water.

 

  1. Summarize the evidence that supports your claim, including how you determined whether the concentration of carcinogen in water exceeds the recommended limit (or not), based on probability. Use quantitative evidence when possible.

Appendix 2 

Could the widespread cancer cases in spotted gliders be explained by elevated levels of carcinogens in the air or soil?

Through your hard work, we now better understand whether the widespread cancer cases in spotted gliders could be explained by elevated concentrations of carcinogens in the water in Alluria.

However, carcinogens can enter an organism through air, soil, and water. Fortunately, GUS recorded the concentrations of carcinogens in samples of air and soil around the Allurian Forest. We need to analyze the concentrations of carcinogens in these samples as we did for the water samples to determine if the widespread cases of cancer in spotted gliders could be explained by elevated concentrations of carcinogens in the air or soil of the Allurian Forest.

Part 1 – Concentration of carcinogen in the air: 

The concentration of carcinogen in air is measured in units of micrograms of carcinogen per cubic meter of air (µg/m3). The Galactic Environmental Treaty recommends that air contains a concentration of a given carcinogen that is less than 10 µg/m3.

The figure below shows the frequency distribution of carcinogen concentration in air samples collected in the Allurian Forest. The red curve represents the normal probability distribution that best describes the data.

 

 

 

I have concluded that a normal probability distribution reasonably models the concentration of carcinogens in the air. The mean concentration equals 0.97 µg/m3, and the standard deviation equals 0.20 µg/m3. Given this information, you can calculate the probability that the carcinogen concentration in air samples exceeds the recommended 10 µg/m3 limit.

 

ID Carcinogen concentration (µg/m³)
1 0.95
2 1.14
3 1.22
4 0.67
5 0.97
6 0.88
7 0.58
8 1.15
9 1.04
10 1.01
11 1.06
12 1.09
13 1.39
14 0.87
15 0.71
16 1.02
17 0.87
18 1.14
19 0.71
20 0.84

Use the raw data in this tab to calculate the probability that air from Alluria contains more than 10 µg of carcinogen per cubic meter (>10 µg/m³).

 

These are for questions 9-11.

 

Use this Excel sheet for calculations. Round all calculated values to the nearest tenth of a decimal place. For example, if you calculate the value as 3.8218%, round to 3.8%.

 

Directions: For questions 9-11, use the Act I: A Mysterious Disease Workbook and refer to the sheet titled “Q9-11 Air Concentration Prob,” containing the concentrations of carcinogen in air samples from the Allurian Forest (sample size = 20 air samples). Use Excel for calculations, modeling, and graphing.

  1. Calculate the probability that air from the Allurian Forest contains more than 10 µg of carcinogen per cubic meter (> 10 µg/m3).

 

Excel tutorial:

  • #11 Calculating a Probability from a Normal Probability Distribution; #11 Calculating a Probability from a Normal Probability Distribution transcript

 

The probability that air contains more than 10 µg/m3 of carcinogen =

You can now conclude whether the concentration of carcinogens in air exceeds the recommended limit. Be sure to provide your reasoning, highlighting the relevant evidence supporting your claim.

Note: Use the following criteria to determine whether the concentration of carcinogen in the air exceeds the recommended limit: the probability of observing a concentration of carcinogen in air that exceeds 10 ug/m3 must be greater than 5%.

 

  1. Select the claim that is better supported by the evidence.
  2. Yes, the widespread cancer cases in spotted gliders could be explained by elevated levels of carcinogens in the air.
  3. No, the widespread cancer cases in spotted gliders could not be explained by elevated levels of carcinogens in the air.

 

  1. Summarize the evidence that supports your claim, including how you determined whether the concentration of carcinogen in the air exceeds the recommended limit (or not) based on probability. Use quantitative evidence when possible.

 

Part 2 – Concentration of carcinogen in soil 

 

 

The concentration of carcinogens in soil is measured in micrograms per kilogram of soil (µg/kg). The Galactic Environmental Treaty recommends that soil contain a concentration of a given carcinogen less than 400µg/kg.

The figure below shows the frequency distribution of the concentration of carcinogens in soil samples collected in the Allurian Forest. The red curve represents the normal probability distribution that best describes the data.

ID Carcinogen concentration (µg/kg)
1 257.71
2 296.15
3 258.17
4 325.73
5 289.40
6 246.13
7 247.72
8 294.67
9 254.47
10 299.40
11 298.67
12 287.93
13 341.55
14 332.65
15 277.59
16 295.76
17 340.50
18 282.50
19 288.99
20 287.55

Use the raw data in this tab to calculate the probability that soil from Alluria contains more than 400 µg of carcinogen per kilogram (>400 µg/kg).

 

These are for questions 12-14.

 

Use this Excel sheet for calculations. Round all calculated values to the nearest tenth of a decimal place. For example, if you calculate the value as 3.8218%, round to 3.8%.

 

Directions: For questions 12-14, use the Act I: A Mysterious Disease Workbook and refer to the sheet titled “Q12-14 Soil Concentration Prob,” which contains the concentrations of carcinogens in soil samples from the Allurian Forest (sample size = 20 soil samples). Use Excel for calculations, modeling, and graphing.

  1. Calculate the probability that soil from Alluria contains more than 400 µg of carcinogen per kilogram (> 400 µg/kg).

 

Excel tutorial:

  • #11 Calculating a Probability from a Normal Probability Distribution; #11 Calculating a Probability from a Normal Probability Distribution transcript

 

The probability that soil contains more carcinogens than 400 µg/kg =

 

You can now conclude whether the concentration of carcinogens in soil exceeds the recommended limit. Be sure to provide your reasoning, highlighting the relevant evidence supporting your claim.

Note: Use the following criteria to determine whether the carcinogen concentration exceeds the recommended limit: the probability of observing a concentration of carcinogen in soil that exceeds 400 µg/kg must be greater than 5%.

 

  1. Select the claim that is better supported by the evidence.
  2. Yes, the widespread cancer cases in spotted gliders could be explained by elevated levels of carcinogens in the soil.
  3. No, the widespread cancer cases in spotted gliders could not be explained by elevated levels of carcinogens in the soil.

 

  1. Summarize the evidence that supports your claim, including how you determined whether the concentration of carcinogen in the soil exceeds the recommended limit (or not), based on probability. Use quantitative evidence when possible.

 

 

 

Appendix 3 

How could a malfunction in cellular communication have caused the cancer in spotted gliders?

Cancerous cells reproduce uncontrollably. Normally, cells receive signals from their environment that communicate whether to reproduce – we call this cell division. However, a malfunction in the proteins of a signaling pathway can cause a cell to reproduce without the appropriate signals (or to ignore signals to stop reproducing). Thus, cancer results from a breakdown in communication among cells.

 

To investigate the malfunction that caused the tumors of spotted gliders, we must identify proteins critical for regulating cell division. Figure 1.3 shows the signaling pathway in spotted gliders, in which cell division occurs rapidly in the presence of a signaling molecule. By contrast, cell division in spotted gliders occurs slowly without the same signaling molecule.

 

Figure 1.2, long description  

 

Figure 1.3. The signaling pathway that regulates cell division in spotted gliders. Upper left: The signaling molecule (SR1) binds to the receptor (R1). Center: When no signaling molecule is bound to the receptor, most proteins in the signaling pathway are inactive, but a protein that represses cell division (CDI2) is active. Right: When a signaling molecule is bound to the receptor, most proteins in the signaling pathway become active. The first three proteins in the pathway (KR1-KR3) are activated by phosphorylation. The protein KR3 inactivates CDI2, which prevents CDI2 from inhibiting cell division. KR3 also activates CDP1, which directly promotes cell division.

 

We will follow two steps to answer the question, “How could a malfunction in cellular communication have caused cancer in spotted gliders?”

 

Step 1: Analyze the signaling pathway to determine the consequence of a malfunction in the receptor. Predict what you would observe if the receptor remains active, even in the absence of a signal. This step will enable us to determine whether a malfunction in the receptor could cause cancer.

 

Step 2: Identify a downstream protein whose malfunction would cause the cell to reproduce continuously. Predict what you would observe if other proteins in the signaling pathway, including KR1-KR3, CDP1, and CDI2, malfunction. This step will enable us to determine whether a malfunction in a protein downstream of the receptor could cause cancer.

 

Step 1: Analyze the signaling pathway to determine the consequence of a malfunction in the receptor.

 

Every protein in a cell is made from instructions contained in a gene. When a carcinogen mutates these instructions, the cell will make a mutant protein whose function could differ from that of the typical protein. Many mutant proteins have a different structure than the typical protein, causing the mutant protein to malfunction within the cell.

 

Imagine that a carcinogen mutates the gene for the protein that functions as the receptor (R1) in the signaling pathway of spotted gliders. The mutated receptor always remains active, regardless of whether the signal (SR1) is present. What impact, if any, would this mutation have on the signaling pathway? Could this mutation have caused the tumors that we observed in spotted gliders?

 

Directions: Use the above scenario and the signaling pathway in Figure 1.3  to answer questions 15-20.

 

  1. Given the scenario above, select the claim that is best supported by the signaling pathway in Figure 1.3.
  2. The concentration of active CDP1 in the mutated cell will be greater than that in a typical cell.
  3. The concentration of active CDP1 in the mutated cell will be less than that in a typical cell.
  4. The concentration of active CDP1 in the mutated cell will be similar to that in a typical cell.

 

  1. Explain your answer to the previous question. Your explanation should minimally discuss how you used the signaling pathway in Figure 1.3 to determine whether the concentration of active CDP1 in the mutated cell would differ from the concentration of active CDP1 in a typical cell.

 

  1. Given the scenario above, select the claim that is best supported by the signaling pathway in Figure 1.3.
  2. The concentration of active CDI2 in the mutated cell will be greater than that in a typical cell.
  3. The concentration of active CDI2 in the mutated cell will be less than that in a typical cell.
  4. The concentration of active CDI2 in the mutated cell will be similar to that in a typical cell.

 

  1. Explain your answer to the previous question. Your explanation should minimally discuss how you used the signaling pathway in Figure 1.3 to determine whether the concentration of active CDI2 in the mutated cell would differ from the concentration of active CDI2 in a typical cell.

 

  1. Given the scenario above, select the claim that is best supported by the signaling pathway in Figure 1.3. The mutated cell will reproduce…
  2. …only in the presence of the signal SR1.
  3. …only in the absence of the signal SR1.
  4. …in the presence or absence of the signal SR1.

 

  1. Explain your answer to the previous question. Your explanation should minimally discuss how you used the signaling pathway in Figure 1.3 to determine whether the presence or absence of the signal SR1 will affect the mutated cells’ reproduction.

 

 

Step 2: Identify a downstream protein whose malfunction would cause the cell to reproduce continuously.

An active receptor interacts with other proteins in the membrane or cytoplasm. For example, in Figure 1.3, when R1 is activated, it activates kinase KR1. These downstream proteins, such as kinases, help to filter, interpret, and boost the signal, ultimately influencing how a cell behaves. Thus, a cell may behave unusually when a downstream protein in a signaling pathway malfunctions.

 

In Step 1, we considered a malfunctioning receptor’s impact on mutated cells. Could the tumors of spotted gliders have been caused by the malfunction of a downstream protein rather than the receptor? The signaling pathway has five downstream proteins: KR1, KR2, KR3, CDP1, and CDI2. Predict whether a malfunction would stimulate or inhibit cellular reproduction for each downstream protein.

 

Once you have analyzed the effect of a malfunction in each downstream protein, you can decide which protein would likely cause a cell to reproduce continuously if the protein malfunctioned.

 

Directions: Use the signaling pathway in Figure 1.3 to answer questions 21-30. For ease, Figure 1.3 has been provided below. For each of the true-false statements, assume the R1 receptor is inactive and assume there is no SR1 signal present.

 

 

 

Figure 1.3. The signaling pathway that regulates cell division in spotted gliders. Upper left: The signaling molecule (SR1) binds to the receptor (R1). Center: When no signaling molecule is bound to the receptor, most proteins in the signaling pathway are inactive, but a protein that represses cell division (CDI2) is active. Right: When a signaling molecule is bound to the receptor, most proteins in the signaling pathway become active. The first three proteins in the pathway (KR1-KR3) are activated by phosphorylation. The protein KR3 inactivates CDI2, which prevents CDI2 from inhibiting cell division. KR3 also activates CDP1, which directly promotes cell division.

 

  1. True or False: Cell division would likely increase if a malfunction caused KR1 to permanently remain in its active state.
  2. True
  3. False

 

  1. Explain your answer to the previous question. Your explanation should minimally discuss how you used the signaling pathway in Figure 1.3 to determine if a malfunction that permanently caused KR1 to remain in its active state would likely cause cell division to increase (or not).

 

  1. True or False: Cell division would likely increase if a malfunction caused KR2 to permanently remain in its active state.
  2. True
  3. False

 

  1. Explain your answer to the previous question. Your explanation should minimally discuss how you used the signaling pathway in Figure 1.3 to determine if a malfunction that caused KR2 to permanently remain in its active state would likely cause cell division to increase (or not).

 

  1. True or False: If a malfunction caused KR3 to permanently remain in its active state, this would likely cause cell division to increase.
  2. True
  3. False

 

  1. Explain your answer to the previous question. Your explanation should minimally discuss how you used the signaling pathway in Figure 1.3 to determine if a malfunction that caused KR3 to permanently remain in its active state would likely cause cell division to increase (or not).

 

  1. True or False: If a malfunction caused CDP1 to permanently remain in its active state, this would likely cause cell division to increase.
  2. True
  3. False

 

  1. Explain your answer to the previous question. Your explanation should minimally discuss how you used the signaling pathway in Figure 1.3 to determine if a malfunction that caused CDP1 to permanently remain in its active state would likely cause cell division to increase (or not).

 

  1. True or False: If a malfunction caused CDI2 to permanently remain in its active state, this would likely cause cell division to increase.
  2. True
  3. False

 

  1. Explain your answer to the previous question. Your explanation should minimally discuss how you used the signaling pathway in Figure 1.3 to determine if a malfunction that caused CDI2 to permanently remain in its active state would likely cause cell division to increase (or not).

 

Please help I’m lost.

 
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